fix(growth): rank the rate board by a smoothed score

Show the real percentage on the card, but sort with delta / (baseline + prior) so a small baseline cannot dominate. Same-day publishes stay off the rate board.

tests/test_analytics.py

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ from reaction_board.analytics import (  # noqa: E402
     METRICS,
     age_days,
     compute_growth,
+    smoothed_growth_rate,
     content_hours,
     eb_rate,
     effective_shrink_minutes,
@@ -161,6 +162,19 @@ def test_compute_growth():
     assert negative.per_day == -5.0
 
 
+def test_smoothed_growth_rate():
+    # 80→512：真实增速 5.4；prior=500 时排序分 432/580
+    assert abs(smoothed_growth_rate(432, 80, 500) - 432 / 580) < 1e-12
+    assert abs(smoothed_growth_rate(432, 5000, 500) - 432 / 5500) < 1e-12
+    assert abs(smoothed_growth_rate(432, 80, 1000) - 432 / 1080) < 1e-12
+    # prior=0 时排序分退回真实相对增速（基线 ≥ 1）
+    assert smoothed_growth_rate(432, 80, 0) == 432 / 80
+    assert smoothed_growth_rate(None, 80, 500) is None
+    assert smoothed_growth_rate(432, None, 500) is None
+    assert smoothed_growth_rate(10, 0, 0) is None
+    assert smoothed_growth_rate(10, 80, -1) is None
+
+
 def test_normalize_cover_and_hosts():
     assert normalize_cover(None) is None
     assert normalize_cover("") is None
@@ -251,6 +265,7 @@ def main_test():
     test_score_percentiles()
     test_interaction_rate_thresholds()
     test_compute_growth()
+    test_smoothed_growth_rate()
     test_normalize_cover_and_hosts()
     test_content_efficiency_helpers()
     test_age_and_maturity()

tests/test_config.py

@@ -146,6 +146,7 @@ def test_analytics_defaults_and_validation():
         assert cfg.analytics.video_shrink_minutes == 60
         assert cfg.analytics.shrink_minutes is None
         assert cfg.analytics.home_growth_days == "auto"
+        assert cfg.analytics.growth_rate_prior == 500
         assert cfg.schedule.recent_snapshot_minutes == 60
         assert cfg.schedule.recent_video_days == 2
         assert cfg.schedule.snapshot_at == "23:15"
@@ -159,6 +160,7 @@ def test_analytics_defaults_and_validation():
             "video_shrink_minutes": 30,
             "shrink_minutes": 90,
             "home_growth_days": 1,
+            "growth_rate_prior": 1000,
         }
         data["schedule"] = {
             "discover_minutes": 30,
@@ -176,6 +178,7 @@ def test_analytics_defaults_and_validation():
         assert cfg.analytics.video_shrink_minutes == 30
         assert cfg.analytics.shrink_minutes == 90
         assert cfg.analytics.home_growth_days == 1
+        assert cfg.analytics.growth_rate_prior == 1000
         assert cfg.schedule.recent_snapshot_minutes == 15
         assert cfg.schedule.recent_video_days == 3
 
@@ -194,6 +197,7 @@ def test_analytics_defaults_and_validation():
             ({"home_growth_days": 3}, "home_growth_days"),
             ({"home_growth_days": "7"}, "home_growth_days"),
             ({"home_growth_days": 0}, "home_growth_days"),
+            ({"growth_rate_prior": -1}, "growth_rate_prior"),
         ):
             data = base_config()
             data["analytics"] = bad

tests/test_web_queries.py

@@ -492,6 +492,7 @@ def test_about_payload():
                 "video_shrink_minutes": 60,
                 "shrink_minutes": None,
                 "home_growth_days": "auto",
+                "growth_rate_prior": 500,
             }
             assert about["heat_weights"]["view"] == 0.30
             assert about["followers"]["videos_total"] == 3
@@ -748,12 +749,18 @@ def test_same_day_growth_baselines():
             assert 106 not in by_aid and 107 not in by_aid
             assert by_aid[103]["growth"]["baseline"] == "zero"
             assert by_aid[103]["growth"]["delta"] == 200
+            assert by_aid[103]["growth"]["rate"] is None
             assert by_aid[103]["growth"]["gap_days"] == 0
             assert by_aid[105]["growth"]["baseline"] == "open"
             assert by_aid[105]["growth"]["delta"] == 300
             assert by_aid[101]["growth"]["baseline"] == "snapshot"
             assert by_aid[101]["growth"]["delta"] == 100
 
+            rate = q.list_videos(sort="growth_rate", growth_days=1, page_size=20)
+            rate_aids = {item["aid"] for item in rate["items"]}
+            assert 103 not in rate_aids
+            assert 101 in rate_aids and 105 in rate_aids
+
             seven = q.list_videos(sort="growth", growth_days=7)
             seven_aids = {item["aid"] for item in seven["items"]}
             assert 103 not in seven_aids
@@ -774,6 +781,41 @@ def test_same_day_growth_baselines():
             db.close()
 
 
+def test_growth_rate_sort_uses_prior():
+    """小基数的真实增速可以更高，排序分用基线 + prior，不按 raw rate 排。"""
+    with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as tmp:
+        db, q = setup(tmp)
+        try:
+            repo = Repository(db)
+            latest = DATES[-1]
+            previous_day = DATES[-2]
+            start = int(day_bounds(latest)[0])
+            pub = int(day_bounds("2026-09-01")[0])
+            for aid, views in ((301, (80, 512)), (302, (2000, 4000))):
+                repo.upsert_from_fav(
+                    resource(aid, up_mid=1, up_name="UP A", pubdate=pub),
+                    FOLDER.media_id, was_added=True, now=start,
+                )
+                repo.upsert_snapshot(
+                    previous_day, aid, metrics=_view_metrics(views[0]),
+                    ok=True, err=None, captured_at=start - 86400,
+                )
+                repo.upsert_snapshot(
+                    latest, aid, metrics=_view_metrics(views[1]),
+                    ok=True, err=None, captured_at=start + 60,
+                )
+            DASHBOARD_CACHE.clear()
+            ranked = q.list_videos(sort="growth_rate", growth_days=1, page_size=20)
+            order = [item["aid"] for item in ranked["items"]]
+            assert ranked["growth_rate_prior"] == 500
+            assert order.index(302) < order.index(301)
+            small = next(item for item in ranked["items"] if item["aid"] == 301)
+            assert abs(small["growth"]["rate"] - 432 / 80) < 1e-12
+            assert small["growth"]["delta"] == 432
+        finally:
+            db.close()
+
+
 def test_system_tasks_sorted_by_started_at_desc():
     """最近任务按 started_at 倒序；缺开始时间的排末尾（含进行中无 finished）。"""
     import json
@@ -835,6 +877,7 @@ def main_test():
     test_snapshot_recent_next_run_follows_completion()
     test_overview_adjacent_previous_with_seed_and_dual_fields()
     test_same_day_growth_baselines()
+    test_growth_rate_sort_uses_prior()
     print("OK: Web 查询层总览/榜单/详情/UP/时长效率/粉丝/候选/系统/访问统计测试全部通过")