fix(growth): rank the rate board by a smoothed score

Show the real percentage on the card, but sort with delta / (baseline + prior) so a small baseline cannot dominate. Same-day publishes stay off the rate board.

DEVELOPMENT.md

@@ -756,7 +756,7 @@ uv run python tests/test_moves.py
 - 粉丝采集对每条 `relation/stat` 加 45s 硬超时看门狗（防 DNS/传输层挂起），每 25 条输出 `up_profile.progress` 进度；单条失败不阻塞整批；
 - `app.py backfill-followers`：一次性回填历史视频粉丝数，支持 `--limit` / `--dry-run`；
 - 新增内容效率/互动效率榜与 UP 内容效率（Gamma–Poisson EB 收缩），过滤 < 600 秒与未满 2 天的视频；
-- `analytics` 配置段：`min_duration_seconds`、`maturity_days`、`min_view_for_ranking`、`video_shrink_minutes`、`shrink_minutes`；
+- `analytics` 配置段：`min_duration_seconds`、`maturity_days`、`min_view_for_ranking`、`video_shrink_minutes`、`shrink_minutes`、`growth_rate_prior`；
 - 主导航拆分：`/videos`（视频）与 `/ups`（UP主）独立；旧 `/rank` 保留兼容；
 - 新增 `/about` 数据说明页与 `/api/about`；
 - 卡片精简：列表只保留主指标与互动率，明细移到详情页；

config.docker.example.jsonc

@@ -108,5 +108,6 @@
     "video_shrink_minutes": 60,
     "shrink_minutes": null,
     "home_growth_days": "auto",
+    "growth_rate_prior": 500,
   },
 }

config.example.jsonc

@@ -123,5 +123,7 @@
     "shrink_minutes": null,
     // "auto" = 7 日有数据用 7，否则 1
     "home_growth_days": "auto",
+    // 增速榜排序：Δ / (基线 + prior)。卡片上的百分比仍是 Δ / 基线。
+    "growth_rate_prior": 500,
   },
 }

project.md

@@ -679,8 +679,9 @@ w = {view:0.30, like:0.20, coin:0.20, favorite:0.15,
 ```
 d7 = (view_today - view_{today-7}) / 实际间隔天数
 r7 = (view_today - view_{today-7}) / max(view_{today-7}, 1)
-d1_published_today = view_today - 0
+d1_published_today = view_today - 0          # 只进增量榜，不计算增速
 d1_imported_today  = view_today - view_open   # 需同日第二次采样
+sort_rate = Δ / (基线 + analytics.growth_rate_prior)  # 默认 prior=500，只用于增速榜排序
 ```
 
 | 榜 | 口径 | 基数门槛 |
@@ -692,7 +693,7 @@ d1_imported_today  = view_today - view_open   # 需同日第二次采样
 | 单项榜 | 7 项直接排序 | — |
 | UP 榜 | 按 `up_mid` 聚合 Σ/AVG | — |
 
-**冷启动**：近 1 日不要求跨日快照。当日发布相对 0；更早发布且当天入库的片子相对 `view_open`（第二次采样走晚间全量，不进小时快照）。近 7/30 日仍要跨日快照。缺失日不插值。
+**冷启动**：近 1 日不要求跨日快照。当日发布相对 0，只进播放增量、不进播放增速；更早发布且当天入库的片子相对 `view_open`（第二次采样走晚间全量，不进小时快照）。近 7/30 日仍要跨日快照。缺失日不插值。
 
 ### 8.3 趋势
 

reaction_board/analytics.py

@@ -340,6 +340,29 @@ def compute_growth(
     )
 
 
+def smoothed_growth_rate(
+    delta: int | float | None,
+    previous: int | float | None,
+    prior: int | float,
+) -> float | None:
+    """增速榜排序分：``Δ / (基线 + prior)``。
+
+    ``rate`` 仍是真实相对增速。``prior`` 只削弱小基数在排序里的优势。
+    """
+    if delta is None or previous is None or isinstance(delta, bool) or isinstance(previous, bool):
+        return None
+    if isinstance(prior, bool):
+        return None
+    try:
+        strength = float(prior)
+        base = max(0, int(previous)) + strength
+    except (TypeError, ValueError):
+        return None
+    if strength < 0 or base <= 0:
+        return None
+    return int(delta) / base
+
+
 def normalize_cover(url: object) -> str | None:
     """把 B 站封面统一为 https；空值返回 None。"""
     if not isinstance(url, str):

reaction_board/config.py

@@ -52,6 +52,7 @@ DEFAULT_ANALYTICS: dict[str, Any] = {
     "video_shrink_minutes": 60,
     "shrink_minutes": None,
     "home_growth_days": "auto",
+    "growth_rate_prior": 500,
 }
 
 DEFAULT_CONFIG: dict[str, Any] = {
@@ -210,6 +211,7 @@ class AnalyticsConfig:
     video_shrink_minutes: int
     shrink_minutes: int | None
     home_growth_days: str | int
+    growth_rate_prior: int
 
 
 @dataclass(frozen=True)
@@ -592,6 +594,11 @@ def _build_config(data: Mapping[str, Any], path: Path, *, secrets_path: Path) ->
             )
         ),
         home_growth_days=home_growth_days,
+        growth_rate_prior=_as_int(
+            analytics_raw.get("growth_rate_prior", 500),
+            "analytics.growth_rate_prior",
+            minimum=0,
+        ),
     )
 
     return AppConfig(

reaction_board/web/queries.py

@@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ from ..analytics import (
     METRICS,
     MIN_VIEW_FOR_GROWTH_RATE,
     compute_growth,
+    smoothed_growth_rate,
     content_hours,
     eb_rate,
     effective_shrink_minutes,
@@ -437,6 +438,8 @@ class DashboardQueries:
             growth = compute_growth(current, 0, 0, allow_zero_gap=True)
             payload = growth.as_dict()
             payload["baseline"] = "zero"
+            # previous=0 时 rate = view/1，会按原始播放碾压真日环比。
+            payload["rate"] = None
             return payload
         try:
             open_at = snapshot.get("open_captured_at")
@@ -1031,9 +1034,13 @@ class DashboardQueries:
                 if sort == "growth_rate":
                     items = [
                         item for item in items
-                        if (item["metrics"] or {}).get("view", 0) >= MIN_VIEW_FOR_GROWTH_RATE
+                        if item.get("growth", {}).get("baseline") != "zero"
+                        and item.get("growth", {}).get("rate") is not None
+                        and (item["metrics"] or {}).get("view", 0) >= MIN_VIEW_FOR_GROWTH_RATE
                     ]
 
+            rate_prior = max(0, int(analytics.growth_rate_prior))
+
             def sort_key(item: Mapping[str, Any]):
                 if sort == "added":
                     return (int(item["first_seen"]), int(item["pubdate"]))
@@ -1050,9 +1057,18 @@ class DashboardQueries:
                     )
                     value = item.get(field)
                     return value if value is not None else float("-inf")
-                if sort in {"growth", "growth_rate"}:
+                if sort == "growth":
-                    field = "delta" if sort == "growth" else "rate"
+                    value = item.get("growth", {}).get("delta")
-                    value = item.get("growth", {}).get(field)
+                    return value if value is not None else float("-inf")
+                if sort == "growth_rate":
+                    growth = item.get("growth") or {}
+                    delta = growth.get("delta")
+                    current = (item.get("metrics") or {}).get("view")
+                    if delta is None or current is None:
+                        return float("-inf")
+                    value = smoothed_growth_rate(
+                        delta, int(current) - int(delta), rate_prior,
+                    )
                     return value if value is not None else float("-inf")
                 value = (item["metrics"] or {}).get(sort)
                 return value if value is not None else -1
@@ -1069,7 +1085,12 @@ class DashboardQueries:
             reason = None
             if sort in {"growth", "growth_rate"} and not growth_available:
                 available = False
-                if growth_days == 1:
+                if growth_days == 1 and sort == "growth_rate":
+                    reason = (
+                        "近 1 日增速需要前一日快照，或更早发布的新入库当天至少两次成功采样；"
+                        "当日发布不计入增速"
+                    )
+                elif growth_days == 1:
                     reason = (
                         "近 1 日增长需要前一日快照；当日发布有一次成功采样即可；"
                         "更早发布的新入库需要当天至少两次成功采样"
@@ -1108,6 +1129,7 @@ class DashboardQueries:
                 "available": available,
                 "reason": reason,
                 "duration_filter": duration_filter,
+                "growth_rate_prior": rate_prior if sort == "growth_rate" else None,
             }
         return self.db.read(run)
 
@@ -1754,6 +1776,7 @@ class DashboardQueries:
                     "video_shrink_minutes": cfg.analytics.video_shrink_minutes,
                     "shrink_minutes": cfg.analytics.shrink_minutes,
                     "home_growth_days": cfg.analytics.home_growth_days,
+                    "growth_rate_prior": cfg.analytics.growth_rate_prior,
                 },
                 "heat_weights": {
                     metric: float(value)

reaction_board/web/static/components.js

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import {
   coverUrl, escapeAttr, escapeHtml, formatCount, formatDate,
-  formatDelta, formatDuration, formatPercent, metricLabel, statusLabel,
+  formatDelta, formatDuration, formatPercent, formatSignedPercent, metricLabel, statusLabel,
 } from "./format.js";
 
 export function cover(item, className = "thumb") {
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ function growthBaselineTag(growth) {
 
 export function videoCard(item, {
   rank = null, primary = "view", primaryLabel = "", primaryText = null,
-  showStatus = false,
+  showStatus = false, growthField = "delta",
 } = {}) {
   const metrics = item.metrics || {};
   const hasMetric = Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(metrics, primary);
@@ -49,7 +49,13 @@ export function videoCard(item, {
   const primaryValue = typeof raw === "number" ? formatCount(raw) : raw;
   const label = primaryLabel || metricLabel(primary);
   const growth = item.growth;
-  const delta = growth?.available ? growth.delta : null;
+  const showRate = growthField === "rate";
+  const rate = showRate && growth?.available ? growth.rate : null;
+  const delta = !showRate && growth?.available ? growth.delta : null;
+  const change = showRate
+    ? (rate === null || rate === undefined ? null : formatSignedPercent(rate))
+    : (delta === null || delta === undefined ? null : formatDelta(delta));
+  const changeUp = showRate ? Number(rate) >= 0 : Number(delta) >= 0;
   const title = escapeHtml(item.title || "(无标题)");
   const up = escapeHtml(item.up_name || "未知 UP");
   const upMid = item.up_mid;
@@ -79,7 +85,7 @@ export function videoCard(item, {
           <span class="primary-stat">
             <b>${escapeHtml(primaryValue ?? "—")}</b><small>${escapeHtml(label)}</small>
           </span>
-          ${delta !== null ? `<span class="delta ${delta >= 0 ? "up" : "down"}">${formatDelta(delta)}${growthBaselineTag(growth)}</span>` : ""}
+          ${change !== null ? `<span class="delta ${changeUp ? "up" : "down"}">${change}${growthBaselineTag(growth)}</span>` : ""}
           <span class="secondary-stat">互动 ${formatPercent(item.interaction_rate)}</span>
         </div>
       </div>

reaction_board/web/static/format.js

@@ -46,6 +46,12 @@ export function formatPercent(value, digits = 2) {
   return `${(Number(value) * 100).toFixed(digits)}%`;
 }
 
+export function formatSignedPercent(value, digits = 2) {
+  const text = formatPercent(value, digits);
+  if (text === "—" || Number(value) <= 0) return text;
+  return `+${text}`;
+}
+
 export function formatDate(timestamp) {
   if (!timestamp) return "—";
   const date = new Date(Number(timestamp) * 1000);

reaction_board/web/static/views/about.js

@@ -50,6 +50,7 @@ export async function renderAbout(root) {
         <li><strong>播放 / 投币 / 收藏 / 评论</strong>：直接取当日快照；弹幕与转发不单列，已并入“互动”。</li>
         <li><strong>互动</strong>：点赞 + 投币 + 收藏。综合热度也使用全部七项指标，按配置权重加权。</li>
         <li><strong>互动率</strong>：(点赞 + 投币 + 收藏) / 播放；播放不足 100 不计算。</li>
+        <li><strong>播放增速</strong>：卡片上的百分比是增量 / 基线播放。排序用增量 / (基线 + ${analytics.growth_rate_prior})，避免小基数霸榜。当日发布没有基线，不进增速榜。</li>
         <li><strong>综合热度</strong>：每项先 <code>log1p</code>，再按中位数与 IQR 做稳健标准化，最后加权求和。分数只用于同一批数据内排序，不能跨日期比较。</li>
         <li><strong>内容效率</strong>：播放 / 内容小时。内容小时 = 视频总时长（多 P 为各 P 之和）÷ 3600。榜单里的单条视频用收缩后的估计：<code>(播放 + κ·μ₀) / (小时 + κ)</code>，κ 默认 ${analytics.video_shrink_minutes} 分钟、μ₀ 为全库播放/小时；详情页保留原始播放/小时。</li>
         <li><strong>互动效率</strong>：互动 / 内容小时，互动口径与收缩方式同上。</li>

reaction_board/web/static/views/rankings.js

@@ -166,6 +166,7 @@ function listHtml(data, scope, sort, startRank) {
     return videoCard(item, {
       rank: startRank + index, primary: primary.primary,
       primaryLabel: primary.label, primaryText: primary.text,
+      growthField: sort === "growth_rate" ? "rate" : "delta",
     });
   }).join("")}</div>`;
 }
@@ -179,9 +180,18 @@ function durationNote(data) {
   return `<div class="section-note">内容效率与互动效率：时长 ≥ ${filter.min_duration_seconds} 秒、发布满 ${filter.maturity_days} 天、播放 ≥ ${filter.min_view}${shrink}；时长缺失不参与。</div>`;
 }
 
-function growthNote(sort, growthDays) {
+function growthNote(sort, growthDays, prior) {
-  if (sort !== "growth" && sort !== "growth_rate") return "";
+  if (sort === "growth_rate") {
-  if (Number(growthDays) !== 1) return "";
+    const strength = Number(prior);
+    const smooth = Number.isFinite(strength)
+      ? `百分比是真实相对增量；排序按平滑增速（基线 + ${strength}）。`
+      : "百分比是真实相对增量；排序按平滑增速。";
+    const cold = Number(growthDays) === 1
+      ? "当日发布不进增速榜。更早发布的新入库按入库时播放量起算，需要当天至少两次采样。"
+      : "";
+    return `<div class="section-note">${smooth}${cold}</div>`;
+  }
+  if (sort !== "growth" || Number(growthDays) !== 1) return "";
   return `<div class="section-note">近 1 日：当日发布按 0 起算；更早发布的新入库按入库时播放量起算，需要当天至少两次采样。</div>`;
 }
 
@@ -251,7 +261,7 @@ async function renderScope(root, { query }, scope) {
     </header>
     ${controls({ scope, sort, within, year, growthDays, q, years })}
     ${durationNote(data)}
-    ${growthNote(sort, growthDays)}
+    ${growthNote(sort, growthDays, data.growth_rate_prior)}
     ${data.available === false ? `<div class="notice-row warning">
       <strong>${sort.startsWith("growth") ? "增长数据尚不可用" : "榜单筛选后为空"}</strong>
       <span>${escapeHtml(data.reason || "")}</span>

tests/test_analytics.py

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ from reaction_board.analytics import (  # noqa: E402
     METRICS,
     age_days,
     compute_growth,
+    smoothed_growth_rate,
     content_hours,
     eb_rate,
     effective_shrink_minutes,
@@ -161,6 +162,19 @@ def test_compute_growth():
     assert negative.per_day == -5.0
 
 
+def test_smoothed_growth_rate():
+    # 80→512：真实增速 5.4；prior=500 时排序分 432/580
+    assert abs(smoothed_growth_rate(432, 80, 500) - 432 / 580) < 1e-12
+    assert abs(smoothed_growth_rate(432, 5000, 500) - 432 / 5500) < 1e-12
+    assert abs(smoothed_growth_rate(432, 80, 1000) - 432 / 1080) < 1e-12
+    # prior=0 时排序分退回真实相对增速（基线 ≥ 1）
+    assert smoothed_growth_rate(432, 80, 0) == 432 / 80
+    assert smoothed_growth_rate(None, 80, 500) is None
+    assert smoothed_growth_rate(432, None, 500) is None
+    assert smoothed_growth_rate(10, 0, 0) is None
+    assert smoothed_growth_rate(10, 80, -1) is None
+
+
 def test_normalize_cover_and_hosts():
     assert normalize_cover(None) is None
     assert normalize_cover("") is None
@@ -251,6 +265,7 @@ def main_test():
     test_score_percentiles()
     test_interaction_rate_thresholds()
     test_compute_growth()
+    test_smoothed_growth_rate()
     test_normalize_cover_and_hosts()
     test_content_efficiency_helpers()
     test_age_and_maturity()

tests/test_config.py

@@ -146,6 +146,7 @@ def test_analytics_defaults_and_validation():
         assert cfg.analytics.video_shrink_minutes == 60
         assert cfg.analytics.shrink_minutes is None
         assert cfg.analytics.home_growth_days == "auto"
+        assert cfg.analytics.growth_rate_prior == 500
         assert cfg.schedule.recent_snapshot_minutes == 60
         assert cfg.schedule.recent_video_days == 2
         assert cfg.schedule.snapshot_at == "23:15"
@@ -159,6 +160,7 @@ def test_analytics_defaults_and_validation():
             "video_shrink_minutes": 30,
             "shrink_minutes": 90,
             "home_growth_days": 1,
+            "growth_rate_prior": 1000,
         }
         data["schedule"] = {
             "discover_minutes": 30,
@@ -176,6 +178,7 @@ def test_analytics_defaults_and_validation():
         assert cfg.analytics.video_shrink_minutes == 30
         assert cfg.analytics.shrink_minutes == 90
         assert cfg.analytics.home_growth_days == 1
+        assert cfg.analytics.growth_rate_prior == 1000
         assert cfg.schedule.recent_snapshot_minutes == 15
         assert cfg.schedule.recent_video_days == 3
 
@@ -194,6 +197,7 @@ def test_analytics_defaults_and_validation():
             ({"home_growth_days": 3}, "home_growth_days"),
             ({"home_growth_days": "7"}, "home_growth_days"),
             ({"home_growth_days": 0}, "home_growth_days"),
+            ({"growth_rate_prior": -1}, "growth_rate_prior"),
         ):
             data = base_config()
             data["analytics"] = bad

tests/test_web_queries.py

@@ -492,6 +492,7 @@ def test_about_payload():
                 "video_shrink_minutes": 60,
                 "shrink_minutes": None,
                 "home_growth_days": "auto",
+                "growth_rate_prior": 500,
             }
             assert about["heat_weights"]["view"] == 0.30
             assert about["followers"]["videos_total"] == 3
@@ -748,12 +749,18 @@ def test_same_day_growth_baselines():
             assert 106 not in by_aid and 107 not in by_aid
             assert by_aid[103]["growth"]["baseline"] == "zero"
             assert by_aid[103]["growth"]["delta"] == 200
+            assert by_aid[103]["growth"]["rate"] is None
             assert by_aid[103]["growth"]["gap_days"] == 0
             assert by_aid[105]["growth"]["baseline"] == "open"
             assert by_aid[105]["growth"]["delta"] == 300
             assert by_aid[101]["growth"]["baseline"] == "snapshot"
             assert by_aid[101]["growth"]["delta"] == 100
 
+            rate = q.list_videos(sort="growth_rate", growth_days=1, page_size=20)
+            rate_aids = {item["aid"] for item in rate["items"]}
+            assert 103 not in rate_aids
+            assert 101 in rate_aids and 105 in rate_aids
+
             seven = q.list_videos(sort="growth", growth_days=7)
             seven_aids = {item["aid"] for item in seven["items"]}
             assert 103 not in seven_aids
@@ -774,6 +781,41 @@ def test_same_day_growth_baselines():
             db.close()
 
 
+def test_growth_rate_sort_uses_prior():
+    """小基数的真实增速可以更高，排序分用基线 + prior，不按 raw rate 排。"""
+    with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as tmp:
+        db, q = setup(tmp)
+        try:
+            repo = Repository(db)
+            latest = DATES[-1]
+            previous_day = DATES[-2]
+            start = int(day_bounds(latest)[0])
+            pub = int(day_bounds("2026-09-01")[0])
+            for aid, views in ((301, (80, 512)), (302, (2000, 4000))):
+                repo.upsert_from_fav(
+                    resource(aid, up_mid=1, up_name="UP A", pubdate=pub),
+                    FOLDER.media_id, was_added=True, now=start,
+                )
+                repo.upsert_snapshot(
+                    previous_day, aid, metrics=_view_metrics(views[0]),
+                    ok=True, err=None, captured_at=start - 86400,
+                )
+                repo.upsert_snapshot(
+                    latest, aid, metrics=_view_metrics(views[1]),
+                    ok=True, err=None, captured_at=start + 60,
+                )
+            DASHBOARD_CACHE.clear()
+            ranked = q.list_videos(sort="growth_rate", growth_days=1, page_size=20)
+            order = [item["aid"] for item in ranked["items"]]
+            assert ranked["growth_rate_prior"] == 500
+            assert order.index(302) < order.index(301)
+            small = next(item for item in ranked["items"] if item["aid"] == 301)
+            assert abs(small["growth"]["rate"] - 432 / 80) < 1e-12
+            assert small["growth"]["delta"] == 432
+        finally:
+            db.close()
+
+
 def test_system_tasks_sorted_by_started_at_desc():
     """最近任务按 started_at 倒序；缺开始时间的排末尾（含进行中无 finished）。"""
     import json
@@ -835,6 +877,7 @@ def main_test():
     test_snapshot_recent_next_run_follows_completion()
     test_overview_adjacent_previous_with_seed_and_dual_fields()
     test_same_day_growth_baselines()
+    test_growth_rate_sort_uses_prior()
     print("OK: Web 查询层总览/榜单/详情/UP/时长效率/粉丝/候选/系统/访问统计测试全部通过")